The pace of AI development and proliferation seems to be increasing exponentially every 30 or 60 days now. I only expect that to increase. I’ve never waded into debates about timelines for AGI, despite tracking those conversations for many years, but it’s now clear that we’ve hit a tipping point where realistic debate about near-term potential can be had. This video does a good job illustrating the current state and how the debate is changing.
In my opinion the question is irrelevant if you view AGI as the starting point of massive disruption and the transformation of virtually every human endeavor. We have models that will drive that change now. Relatively few people deeply realize that fact at the moment but it will be an inescapable reality, personal not abstract, for nearly all before the end of 2024 - if not sooner. And when, or if, a universally agreed upon realization of AGI happens we will already be consumed by the changes that are about to overtake everything. Most of us would be better served by skipping the debate and preparing for the immediate future.
